LIST Researcher Analyses Threat Of Climate Change On Biodiversity Decline

Climate change could become the main driver of biodiversity decline, according to a study in which the Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology (LIST) took part. Land-use has led to a biodiversity drop of 2% to 11% during the 20^th century.

A study published in the research-based magazine Science and led by the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) and the Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg (MLU) delved into the state of biodiversity using 13 different models. LIST’s Nicolas Titeux played an active role in the project, sharing his knowledge on the relative roles of direct drivers of biodiversity transformation.

More than one source of impact

Climate change is by far not the only factor, outlined in the report. Changes in land and sea use, particularly through fishing, logging, hunting, and wildlife trade, were projected to have contributed to a biodiversity decline of somewhere between 2% and 11% during the 20^th century. While this aspect remains relevant, by 2050, climate change could take the number one spot in terms of negative impact.

“Of course, these comparisons between drivers need to be interpreted with caution. There are differences in how models capture the impacts of climate and land-use change and in the spatial grain at which these impacts are estimated.”

Nicolas Titeux head of LIST’s Observatory for Climate, Environment and Biodiversity.

Nevertheless, in all three scenarios envisioned in the paper, land-use and climate change result in biodiversity loss in all global regions. They ranged from sustainable development to a high-emission outcome. South America, Africa and South Asia were projected to have the biggest decline. The authors of the research note that the purpose of long-term projections is not to predict the future but to understand trends and avoid trajectories. Bioenergy deployment, derived from materials like organic waste, is one of the key components of the sustainable scenario in the paper. Measures such as wildlife rewilding were not explored in any of the possible outcomes.

“This calls for a new generation of scenarios and models that aim to achieve realistic positive futures for biodiversity.”

Nicolas Titeux head of LIST’s Observatory for Climate, Environment and Biodiversity.